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작성자	egernya
작성일	2014-09-18 14:45:23 KST	조회	383
제목	wcs 2014 predictor 업데이트

HyuN (ROCCAT), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 6050
Zest (KT), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5550
MC, is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5200
San (Yoe), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5125
TaeJa (Liquid), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5100
Polt (CM Storm), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4875
StarDust (mYinsanity), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4700
Bomber, is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4300
jjakji (mYinsanity), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3350
Classic (SKT T1), is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 3200
Life (StarTale), is at ~ 99.43 %, Min WCS Points: 3125
herO (CJ Entus), is at ~ 96.07 %, Min WCS Points: 3100
Snute (Liquid), is at ~ 70.72 %, Min WCS Points: 2925
sOs (Jinair), is at ~ 61.5 %, Min WCS Points: 2850
Jaedong (EG), is at ~ 61.31 %, Min WCS Points: 2950
MMA (Acer), is at ~ 55.19 %, Min WCS Points: 2725
INnoVation, is at ~ 30.82 %, Min WCS Points: 1975
Scarlett (Acer), is at ~ 20.48 %, Min WCS Points: 1950
soO (SKT T1), is at ~ 18.05 %, Min WCS Points: 2650
Bunny (Liquid), is at ~ 15.89 %, Min WCS Points: 2075
Rain (SKT T1), is at ~ 14.28 %, Min WCS Points: 2075
ForGG (Millenium), is at ~ 12.18 %, Min WCS Points: 1675
Pigbaby (Jinair), is at ~ 10.94 %, Min WCS Points: 2500
YoDa (TCM), is at ~ 8.19 %, Min WCS Points: 1425
Heart (Axiom), is at ~ 6.89 %, Min WCS Points: 1550

12위 김준호까지는 사실상 확정.

컷오프 예측

~ 0 % of the time 2,700 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
~ 0.53 % of the time 2,725 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
~ 1.01 % of the time 2,750 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
~ 61.14 % of the time 2,950 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
~ 64.36 % of the time 3,000 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon (was at ~ 41.17 % in yesterday's post)
~ 99.99 % of the time 3,525 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
~ 100 % of the time 3,550 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon (3,575 was the lowest WCS Points with 100% chances in yesterday's post)

최종 커트라인은 2840~3040 사이가 될듯.

어제, 오늘 wcs 결과로 인한 변화 top 5

상승

Biggest Winners
  INnoVation went up by ~ 12.95 %, going from ~ 17.88 % to ~ 30.83 %
  Scarlett went up by ~ 9.86 %, going from ~ 10.61 % to ~ 20.47 %
  Pigbaby went up by ~ 6.39 %, going from ~ 4.55 % to ~ 10.94 %
  Bunny went up by ~ 5.44 %, going from ~ 10.46 % to ~ 15.9 %
  herO went up by ~ 5.15 %, going from ~ 90.93 % to ~ 96.08 %

감소

Biggest Losers
  Jaedong went down by ~ 20.5 %, going from ~ 81.81 % to ~ 61.31 %
  viOLet went down by ~ 12.28 %, going from ~ 12.45 % to ~ 0.17 %
  Solar went down by ~ 10.61 %, going from ~ 10.61 % to ~ 0.01 %
  VortiX went down by ~ 5.59 %, going from ~ 5.59 % to ~ 0.01 %
  DongRaeGu went down by ~ 2.65 %, going from ~ 2.65 % to ~ 0.01 %

외국인의 희망

Foreigner Hope
Snute ~ 46.14 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 70.73 % chance overall.
Scarlett ~ 6.47 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 20.47 % chance overall.
Bunny ~ 4.4 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 15.9 % chance overall.
HuK ~ 1.15 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 3.33 % chance overall.
Welmu ~ 0.62 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 2.58 % chance overall.

Chances of 1+ foreigners went from ~ 82.28 % to ~ 85.82 %
Chances of 2+ foreigners went from ~ 31.03 % to ~ 26.87 %

스누트, 스칼렛, 버니의 선전으로 외국인 1명의 확보는 거의 확실하고, 2명도 여전히 가능함.

각 리그 우승시 확률 변화

GSL
  Rain would gain ~ 85.73 % if they win, with a ~ 14.1 % chance to win, going from ~ 14.27 % to ~ 100 %
  soO would gain ~ 81.93 % if they win, with a ~ 5.41 % chance to win, going from ~ 18.07 % to ~ 100 %
  INnoVation would gain ~ 69.18 % if they win, with a ~ 30.76 % chance to win, going from ~ 30.82 % to ~ 99.99 %

WCS AM
  HerO would gain ~ 93.76 % if they win, with a ~ 6.06 % chance to win, going from ~ 6.24 % to ~ 100 %
  Pigbaby would gain ~ 89.07 % if they win, with a ~ 5.64 % chance to win, going from ~ 10.93 % to ~ 100 %
  Scarlett would gain ~ 79.52 % if they win, with a ~ 18.99 % chance to win, going from ~ 20.48 % to ~ 100 %
  Heart would gain ~ 78.17 % if they win, with a ~ 8.09 % chance to win, going from ~ 6.88 % to ~ 85.05 %
  HuK would gain ~ 60.47 % if they win, with a ~ 5.21 % chance to win, going from ~ 3.32 % to ~ 63.8 %

WCS EU
  Welmu would gain ~ 97.42 % if they win, with a ~ 2.57 % chance to win, going from ~ 2.58 % to ~ 100 %
  Golden would gain ~ 91.76 % if they win, with a ~ 3.55 % chance to win, going from ~ 3.39 % to ~ 95.14 %
  ForGG would gain ~ 87.81 % if they win, with a ~ 10.41 % chance to win, going from ~ 12.19 % to ~ 100 %
  Bunny would gain ~ 84.1 % if they win, with a ~ 11.76 % chance to win, going from ~ 15.9 % to ~ 100 %
  MMA would gain ~ 44.83 % if they win, with a ~ 7.45 % chance to win, going from ~ 55.17 % to ~ 100 %
  MaNa would gain ~ 31.52 % if they win, with a ~ 2.56 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.83 % to ~ 32.35 %
  YoDa would gain ~ 30.97 % if they win, with a ~ 20.93 % chance to win, going from ~ 8.2 % to ~ 39.17 %
  Dayshi would gain ~ 29.94 % if they win, with a ~ 1.81 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.55 % to ~ 30.49 %

Cure, Stats, and Happy still don't get over 10% if they win but do have a chance.
  Cure would gain ~ 2.23 % if they win, with a ~ 20.53 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.58 % to ~ 2.8 %
  Stats would gain ~ 0.21 % if they win, with a ~ 11.41 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.03 % to ~ 0.24 %
  Happy would gain ~ 3.36 % if they win, with a ~ 10.3 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.39 % to ~ 3.75 %

정윤종, 어윤수, 이신형 등은 우승시에 그파 확정.

김도우, 김대엽, 해피 등은 우승해도 그파 가려면 기적이 필요함.

wcs 탈락자들의 드림핵/레드불 결과별 운명

  Snute
~ 5.09 % of the time
Snute gets 1st in DreamHack Stockholm
This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 70.74 % to ~ 100 %

~ 4.61 % of the time
Snute gets 2nd in DreamHack Stockholm
This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 70.74 % to ~ 100 %

~ 8.47 % of the time
Snute gets 4th in DreamHack Stockholm
This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 70.74 % to ~ 99.99 %

~ 14.47 % of the time
Snute gets 8th in DreamHack Stockholm
This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 70.74 % to ~ 99.94 %

~ 23.15 % of the time
Snute gets 16th in DreamHack Stockholm
This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 70.74 % to ~ 89.08 %

~ 23.37 % of the time
Snute gets 32nd in DreamHack Stockholm
This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 70.74 % to ~ 39.5 %

  sOs
~ 14.86 % of the time
sOs gets 1st in Red Bull Washington
This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 61.52 % to ~ 100 %

~ 0.24 % of the time
sOs gets 1st in DreamHack Stockholm
This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 61.52 % to ~ 100 %

~ 13.12 % of the time
sOs gets 2nd in Red Bull Washington
This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 61.52 % to ~ 100 %

~ 0.16 % of the time
sOs gets 2nd in DreamHack Stockholm
This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 61.52 % to ~ 100 %

~ 25.06 % of the time
sOs gets 4th in Red Bull Washington
This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 61.52 % to ~ 99.99 %

~ 0.29 % of the time
sOs gets 4th in DreamHack Stockholm
This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 61.52 % to ~ 99.99 %

~ 46.95 % of the time
sOs gets 8th in Red Bull Washington
This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 61.52 % to ~ 18.04 %

~ 0.46 % of the time
sOs gets 8th in DreamHack Stockholm
This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 61.52 % to ~ 97.18 %

~ 0.7 % of the time
sOs gets 16th in DreamHack Stockholm
This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 61.52 % to ~ 89.81 %

  Jaedong
~ 0.13 % of the time
Jaedong gets 1st in DreamHack Stockholm
This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 61.29 % to ~ 100 %

~ 0.12 % of the time
Jaedong gets 2nd in DreamHack Stockholm
This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 61.29 % to ~ 100 %

~ 0.23 % of the time
Jaedong gets 4th in DreamHack Stockholm
This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 61.29 % to ~ 100 %

~ 0.41 % of the time
Jaedong gets 8th in DreamHack Stockholm
This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 61.29 % to ~ 99.8 %